[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 75.3W AT 05/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 85 NM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 180 NM WSW OF
PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MOVING NNE AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55
KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 73W-77W. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SPREADS NORTH
AND EAST OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...EASTERN CUBA...AND
HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 68W-77W. TOMAS IS
FORECAST TO TRACK N-NE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE
SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH LATE SATURDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N19W 10N28W 08N37W 08N48W 06N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 11W-15W AND FROM
04N-08N BETWEEN 19W-23W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 07N29W TO 13N26W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 22W-32W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE ITCZ REGION NEAR 09N48W TO A WEAKNESS WITHIN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH NEAR 22N44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY LOCATED EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS FROM 07N-23N BETWEEN 38W-47W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS
ENHANCED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 48W
TO A BASE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CONUS ACROSS
THE NW GULF AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR TAMPA BAY AND INTO
THE GULF ALONG 28N83W 23N90W TO 19N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND THIS RESULTS IN THE COLD FRONT
LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE
REMAINING PRIMARILY A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND PRODUCER. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT ARE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
LOCATING OVER THE W ATLC WATERS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...
INCLUDING GALE FORCE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF...ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN RELAX GRADUALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS
PROVIDING THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT N
OF 16N W OF 82W...AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE GULF THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N72W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS FEATURE ALOFT ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TROPICAL
STORM TOMAS WHICH CONTINUES TO TRACK N-NE TOWARD THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MAIN CORE OF CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER OF TOMAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
LOCATED ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 68W-77W. TO THE SOUTH OF
TOMAS...LOW-LEVEL GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM S OF TOMAS NEAR 13N74W
TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N81W. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL
FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND ALONG WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 09N-15N
BETWEEN 71W-85W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN IS FOCUSING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM
SAINT VINCENT N-NW TO ANGUILLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N78W EXTENDING
SW TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST
OF THE COLD FRONT THAT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS NEAR 20N TO
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W-81W. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD
AND TOMAS TRACKS N-NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CONTINUED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE W ATLC E OF THE
FRONT. WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...NW TO N WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FARTHER EAST...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FOUND WITHIN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N41W TO 27N53W. ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 48W THAT
DIPS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 08N. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N36W
EXTENDING S-SW TO 24N43W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE AZORES SW TO NEAR 26N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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