[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 75.9W AT 05/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 80 NM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 230 NM WSW OF
PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MOVING NNE AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50
KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-18N BETWEEN 74W-76W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 21N77W TO 16N71W AND WITHIN
120 NM OF LINE FROM IS FROM 15N74W TO 11N79W INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN 67W-81W. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING WITH MUD SLIDES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OVER
HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N14W 10N29W 8N35W 9N46W 10N58W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 7N28W TO 13N25W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
23W-25W AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 25W-29W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 11N45W TO 22N46W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
AND EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-15N
BETWEEN 39W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER SIERRA LEONE MOVING TO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 18W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND MOST
OF THE GULF E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 04/2100 UTC FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
NE FLORIDA NEAR FLAGLER BEACH TO JUST N OF TAMPA CONTINUING SE
ALONG 25N88W TO 20N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND E OF 84W ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO
CLEAR N OF A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ALONG 27N90W TO
26N97W WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF W OF 87W THUS LIMITING THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE
GULF DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL
STORM TOMAS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A LARGE AND VERY BROAD
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N75W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS FEATURE IS TROPICAL STORM TOMAS
WHICH CONTINUES TO TRACK NNE TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/HAITI.
TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED N ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
OF LINE FROM HONDURANS NEAR 16N84W TO OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W
INCLUDING THE WESTERN MOST CAYMAN ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 15N63W ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND BETWEEN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TO ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA TO 7N58W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 04/2100
UTC EXTENDS OFF THE U.S. E COAST FROM A 996 MB LOW OVER MOREHEAD
CITY NORTH CAROLINA ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
FLAGLER BEACH. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS HISPANIOLA
OVER THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N70W COVERING THE AREA W OF 55W.
TROPICAL DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED N ACROSS
CUBA AND COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM 22N78W TO BEYOND
32N71W TO OVER FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM 31N41W TO 28N56W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN
37W-55W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N37W
TO 24N43W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N45W TO 11N46W
DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF FRANCE WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF A 1015 MB LOW W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
27N19W AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N10W ALONG
THE COAST OF AFRICA TO INLAND OVER WESTERN SAHARA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 1015 MB LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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