[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 75.8W AT 04/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 265 NM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 145 NM SSE
OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING NNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 73W-76W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER
JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 68W-79W. AS TOMAS
TRACKS TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA...A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N24W 07N37W 10N48W 11N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN
07W-18W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 05N-12N ALONG 22W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
09N-14N BETWEEN 20W-27W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 05N-10N
ALONG 36W WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. A
THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 10N60W TO 16N59W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA FROM 07N-16N BETWEEN 54W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 29N92W THAT
SUPPORTS A COMPLEX 1007 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 29N87W.
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS PARTIALLY OCCLUDED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COAST...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE DOMINATE
LOW ALONG 25N88W TO 21N89W AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA COAST TO 17N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF THIS
EVENING. FURTHERMORE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN
89W-95W. IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG NW TO N WINDS UP TO
30 KT WERE DEPICTED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 03/1622 UTC
AND THIS WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY
MID-DAY THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE AND VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N74W. EMBEDDED
BENEATH THIS FEATURE ALOFT IS TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WHICH
CONTINUES TO TRACK N-NW TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND EASTERN
HISPANIOLA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TOMAS ARE LOCATED FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
68W-78W. TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF TOMAS...LOW-LEVEL GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SW OF TOMAS NEAR 13N78W TO COSTA RICA AND INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION. THIS MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN
69W-82W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE CARIBBEAN
AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS PROVIDING FOR A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND W ATLC WATERS W OF 77W. A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS FROM A
1010 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N77W TO
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE. FARTHER EAST...LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND WITHIN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE W
ATLC AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN
52W-65W. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FOUND BETWEEN 38W AND 52W. A 1011 MB LOW
CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N41W EXTENDS A COLD
FRONT TO 26N44W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN
90 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 12N47W TO 20N45W IS ALSO CAPTURED WITHIN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKNESS. THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS DETACHED
FROM THE ITCZ REGION AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS COVERING A LARGE REGION TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FROM 09N-21N BETWEEN 38W-47W
AND IS LIKELY AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS
FROM 23N47W INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 03N36W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE
IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 42N13W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
HIGH SW TO NEAR 22N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net