[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT
03/2100 UTC. TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 74.8W
AT 03/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 260 NM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 210 NM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING NNW AT 5 KT. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1003 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BROAD
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA
S OF 18N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 71W-77W WITH CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOTTING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 19N BETWEEN 68W-83W. TOMAS HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...THUS THE UPGRADE TO TROPICAL
STORM AND COULD BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM TO JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF TOMAS INTENSITY...
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
OVER ANY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS BROKEN BY THE SURFACE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ AND IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N24W 7N30W 8N40W 14N49W 14N56W.
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 21W/22W FROM 3N-12N...ALONG 35W
FROM 5N-11N...ALONG 46W/47W FROM 11N-20N...AND ALONG 59W FROM
9N-16N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 20W-27W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 11W-18W AND WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 8N33W
12N41W TO 20N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE
NW GULF WATERS NEAR 28N95W COVERING THE GULF W OF 87W SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE SE
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N89W ALONG 24N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A
WARM/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE N
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BETWEEN APALACHEE BAY AND PENSACOLA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE
REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 25N W OF 84W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS BUILDING OVER THE W/CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND S OVER MEXICO.
AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE E GULF ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE S GULF GIVING THE
AREA E OF THE FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE GULF FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING IS TROPICAL
STORM TOMAS AS IT MOVES TOWARD HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N73W COVERING THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF WHICH TOMAS IS EMBEDDED BENEATH.
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN
W OF TOMAS AND SUCH IS EXPERIENCING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. TOMAS IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING
OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W
OF 60W INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT E OF 74W THUS PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE W ATLC. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW IN THE N GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N FLORIDA NEAR ST.
AUGUSTINE TO BEYOND 32N79W AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN
55W-75W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A
SHEAR AXIS IS S OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 25N51W TO
24N64W AND WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
90 NM OF THE SHEAR AXIS. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO ADVECTING NE
FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-29N W OF 77W TO
OVER THE FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
24N BETWEEN 40W-60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO
30N44W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 25N50W AND PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N42W TO 23N46W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH N OF 25N. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE S OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 23N47W TO 16N45W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...SEE ITCZ SECTION
ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 26N E OF 35W
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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