[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 75.8W AT
03/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 335 NM SSW OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 270 NM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING WNW AT 04 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS RATHER DISORGANIZED IN THE
VICINITY OF TOMAS AND LOCATES OVER AN AREA COVERING MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN 68W-83W.
WHILE THIS AREA REPRESENTS PERIPHERAL CONVECTION...A BURST OF
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
NW QUADRANT. GIVEN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS
IN THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...BEYOND 72 HOURS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND STEER TOMAS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 12N17W 09N23W 05N26W 06N43W 08N48W 08N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-23W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 03N-10N ALONG 25W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 23W-29W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 08N45W TO 19N46W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN 40W-46W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH
IS LOCATED FROM 06N57W TO 15N58W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 55W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS AND EXTENDS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO CENTRAL
MEXICO. THIS SUPPORTS A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN LOUISIANA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE LOW INTO THE GULF NEAR MORGAN CITY ALONG 25N92W TO THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 26N AND FROM
21N-24N. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N
BETWEEN 83W AND THE COLD FRONT. WHILE SE TO S WINDS ARE
OCCURRING EAST OF THE FRONT...STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE W OF THE
FRONT AND THIS WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE
GULF W OF 90W BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED W
OF 94W THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE AND VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N68W. EMBEDDED
BENEATH THIS FEATURE ALOFT IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS WHICH
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LOCATED FROM 09N-17N
BETWEEN 68W-83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN TO THE EAST AND
WEST OF TOMAS IS EXPERIENCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES AND MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. WITH THE TRACK OF TOMAS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT IS
OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC THAT IS PROVIDING
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...LINGERING POCKETS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 26N68W TO 29N78W.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO ADVECTING NE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHERE
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IS DEPICTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-26N
BETWEEN 78W-82W. ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE...A SHEARLINE IS ANALYZED FROM 26N52W TO 22N63W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A WEAKNESS WITHIN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 43W AND 50W IS WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FOUND FROM 22N49W TO BEYOND 32N45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FROM
22N-28N BETWEEN 43W-47W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N19W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net