[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 75.2W AT 03/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 360 NM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 305 NM SSE
OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING WSW AT 05 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 69W-78W. GIVEN FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS IN THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...THEN BEYOND 72 HOURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND
STEER TOMAS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 07N21W 05N29W 09N43W 08N50W 10N55W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FROM 06N-11N ALONG 19W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 16W-19W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-08N BETWEEN 21W-27W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
07N42W TO 18N44W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 41W-47W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 09N57W
TO 15N55W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-12N
BETWEEN 54W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTENDS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO CENTRAL
MEXICO. THIS SUPPORTS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
LOW INTO THE GULF NEAR VERMILION BAY ALONG 25N94W TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 20N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 22N. A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. WHILE SE TO S
WINDS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE FRONT...STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE
W OF THE FRONT AND THIS WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 90W BY LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE AND VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N68W. EMBEDDED
BENEATH THIS FEATURE ALOFT IS TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WHICH
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 69W-78W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN TO THE EAST AND
WEST OF TOMAS IS EXPERIENCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES AND MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. WITH THE TRACK OF TOMAS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT IS
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC THAT IS PROVIDING OVERALL
STABLE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MEANDERS
ALONG 32N49W 28N57W TO 29N65W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 31N74W TO
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE. POCKETS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE
SURFACE RIDGE FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 66W-77W...AND WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE...A SHEARLINE IS ANALYZED
FROM 26N53W TO 23N62W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN
52W-63W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A WEAKNESS WITHIN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 40W AND 52W IS WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FOUND FROM 24N47W TO BEYOND 32N45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FROM
22N-27N BETWEEN 43W-48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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