[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 022345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS AT 03/0000 UTC IS NEAR 13.5N
75.0W...OR ABOUT 340 NM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI...AND ABOUT
280 NM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. TOMAS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 9
KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. EVEN THOUGH TOMAS HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...STRONG PRECIPITATION REMAINS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE CENTER OF TOMAS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 71W-74W...AND FROM
13N-15N BETWEEN 74W-76W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 69W-78W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
ALSO FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE CENTER FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 63W-67W
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NE VENEZUELA...AND FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
80W-84W OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA...AS WELL AS ACROSS ALL OF COSTA
RICA AND PORTIONS OF PANAMA.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N12W ALONG 8N20W
6N30W 9N42W 11N54W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 9N19W TO
4N21W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION 4N-9N
BETWEEN 18W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 27W-41W. A SECOND EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH
IS FROM 14N42W TO 5N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FINALLY...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N54W TO 10N57W WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG
THE AXIS NEAR 12N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 54W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH CENTERED OVER ERN TEXAS IS IMPACTING
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES
LOUISIANA ALONG 30N93W 27N94W 23N96W AND INTO E CENTRAL
MEXICO...AS OF 2100 UTC. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ALONG 29N90W TO 23N95W INDICATING A SHARP LINE OF STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LESS INTENSE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND BEHIND THE SQUALL TO THE COLD FRONT. A
PATCH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OUT AHEAD OF
THE SQUALL LINE FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 84W-88W...AND ACROSS N
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTH FLORIDA IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE AREA. EXPECT STORMY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING BRINGING STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 69W-78W...AND AREAS TO
BOTH THE E AND W OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TOMAS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN. TOMAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N51W ALONG 29N59W 30N66W
BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT LINES THE BORDER ALONG 31N/32N TO THE
NE TIP OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 64W-82W...AND ACROSS N CENTRAL FLORIDA. S OF THE
FRONT A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N69W TO 25N75W ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE. FARTHER SE...A SHEAR
LINE EXTENDS ALONG 25N55W TO 21N65W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. FARTHER E...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 48W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 32N46W 26N47W 23N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22N-29N.
ACROSS THE ERN ATLC...A LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES
SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH E OF THE
AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 39N19W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N35W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUPPORTING
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS IN AN AREA
OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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