[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Nov 2 13:04:20 CDT 2010

AXNT20 KNHC 021803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS AT 02/1500 UTC IS NEAR
13.5N 72.6W...OR ABOUT 290 NM TO THE SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
HAITI...AND ABOUT 370 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
TOMAS IS MOVING WESTWARD 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. CURACAO REPORTED FOUR INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE 24-HOUR
TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA
NEAR 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN REACHING LA PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF VENEZUELA AND
THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM 10N
NEAR CARTAGENA ON THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 11.5N BETWEEN 75W AND
78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FROM VENEZUELA NEAR 9N TO 16N BETWEEN
67W AND 70W... AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. MORE
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE FLOW THAT
IS AROUND TROPICAL STORM TOMAS...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N/15N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM
NICARAGUA TO PANAMA. HIGH CLOUDS FROM TOMAS ALREADY HAVE BEEN
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
THE CENTER OF TOMAS.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 7N24W
6N29W 8N37W...INTO NORTHERN COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN
28W AND 29W...AND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 31W AND 33W. ONE SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 9N18W 4N20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 9N
BETWEEN 16W AND 23W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 38W/39W
FROM 6N TO 13N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 37W
AND 43W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N54W 11N55W 7N56W.
DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING THROUGH TEXAS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MEXICO SUPPORTS A CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES FROM LOUISIANA TO TEXAS.
THE CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPEARS
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF TEXAS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N97W 28N93W 30N90W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST WATERS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. A LINE OF CONFLUENT WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE A LINE OF CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS...
THAT IS ABOUT 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 87W FROM 23N TO THE
FLORIDA/ALABAMA COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE AREA THAT
IS NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO 30N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST AND 83W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS OBVIOUSLY IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AT
THIS MOMENT. CURACAO REPORTED FOUR INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE
24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA
NEAR 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN REACHING LA PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF VENEZUELA AND THE
NORTHERN SHORES OF LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA. OTHER
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL ARE IN THE WATERS THAT
ARE TO SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 80W. MORE RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE FLOW THAT IS AROUND
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N/15N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM
NICARAGUA TO PANAMA. HIGH CLOUDS FROM TOMAS ALREADY HAVE BEEN
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
THE CENTER OF TOMAS. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AWAY FROM TOMAS.
IT EXTENDS ALONG 21N81W 18N86W INTO SOUTHERN BELIZE/EASTERN
GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 81W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
MEXICO TO THE BELIZE. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N52W TO 19N69W AT THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHEAST...
COVERING MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE
72W. OTHER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND CUBA...MOVING
WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER
TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST
OF 50W. THE TROUGH THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO
30N63W TO 32N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N72W TO
31N79W. THE LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W 29N60W 30N70W...TO THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER NEAR 31N81W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...FROM 25N TO 30N
BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. ONE REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG
25N52W 24N58W 20N64W 19N69W AT THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE/AXIS. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
NORTHEAST...COVERING MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
19N TO THE 72W. A SECOND REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG
32N49W 26N55W 25N59W 24N62W. THE COMPARATIVELY MOST PROMINENT
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN
52W AND 60W. A THIRD REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG
30N56W 28N60W 25N65W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE/AXIS. A CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 28N47W
25N48W 21N54W. CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM  22N TO 32N
BETWEEN 41W AND 51W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 25N24W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO
THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. OTHER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 36W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 35W
AND 53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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