[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 70.8W AT 02/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 315 NM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 435 NM SE
OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. TOMAS CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK BUT
IS EXPERIENCING MARGINAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND
THEREFORE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 67W-71W. AS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RELAX OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...GIVEN A FAVORABLE REGION OF
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS IN THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM...
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING EXISTS BEYOND WEDNESDAY. SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 06N20W 05N28W 07N38W 07N48W 10N56W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF THE W AFRICA COAST BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 13W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 03N19W
TO 10N16W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 17W-21W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 05N38W TO 11N36W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 32W-42W. A THIRD SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 07N57W TO 13N55W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 49W-58W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 23W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN
TEXAS NEAR NACOGDOCHES THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SW TO NORTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 29N104W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ABOUT 60/90 NM ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST
THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE
NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 92W. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND EXHIBITS
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N TO 90W WITH 15-20 KT SE TO S WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF EAST OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN
85W-88W...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF
27N...INCLUDING THE NEARBY ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE NW GULF THIS MORNING...
STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT BY LATE TUESDAY
AND SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 90W BY LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE AND VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N69W. EMBEDDED
BENEATH THIS FEATURE ALOFT IS TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WHICH
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG DEEP CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOCATED FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
67W-71W...INCLUDING ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING FARTHER EAST TO
THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 59W-67W. FARTHER
WEST...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 17N BETWEEN 71W-84W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 50W
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
THAT IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N59W AND EXTENDS ALONG 31N TO 73W. WHILE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF 32N...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT ARE POSSIBLE. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIPS INTO THE DISCUSSION ZONE NEAR 32N47W AND EXTENDS AN
AXIS S-SW TO 24N50W THAT IS SUPPORTING A WEAK FORMING COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 27N50W TO BEYOND 32N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE AREA FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 42W-50W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE
AZORES NEAR 38N23W. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE TROPICAL EAST ATLC...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N30W AND IS PROVIDING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
13N-24N BETWEEN 18W-28W...WHICH INCLUDES THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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