[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON NOV 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 68.7W AT 01/1500
UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NNE OF CURACAO ABOUT
420 MI...675 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. TOMAS IS MOVING W AT
12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. TOMAS CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE SYSTEM FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THIS
VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND THE OTHER ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
PARAMETERS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
5N9W WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 5N30W 6N40W 9N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMERGING INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST
ANALYZED FROM 12N11W TO 4N13W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF 20W FROM 2N TO 9N. A SECOND EMBEDDED
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 35W S OF 13N WITH NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION. A THIRD AND MORE ENERGETIC SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 13N49W TO 7N52W. THIS TROUGH IS STILL EMBEDDED IN
THE ITCZ. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL DERIVED WINDS INDICATE WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 12N
BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE ISLAND OF BARBADOS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED
WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 23W AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE A WEAK ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CENTERED FROM
THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SW GULF. HOWEVER...THIS
FEATURE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR. THE SAME
PRODUCT DISPLAYS MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW N OF
24N. UPPER LEVEL MODEL DATA INDICATES A 70 KT JET-STREAK
DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR NW GULF...LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN
LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN GALVESTON ISLAND TO MARSH ISLAND
RESPECTIVELY. THIS UPPER LEVEL JET ENHANCES A SHORTWAVE THAT
SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER E TEXAS...EXPECTED TO
INTRODUCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF BY TUESDAY WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN...CENTERED OVER THE SE BASIN. EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS
FEATURE ALOFT IS TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WHICH CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ IS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN ALONG
10N. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 09N-16N
BETWEEN 75W-84W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND THIS GENERAL SURFACE
WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCING DOMAIN OF TOMAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 50W
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THIS SUPPORTS A
1021 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N65W THAT IS PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF 51W. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED
FROM 32N49W TO 26N51W. THIS FRONT HAS LOST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IN
THE MEANTIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 200 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 22N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N22W. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE
TROPICAL EAST ATLC... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED E OF
40W THAT IS PROVIDING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 19W-26W...INCLUDING THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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