[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON NOV 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 67.7W AT 01/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 115 NM NE OF CURACAO MOVING W AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. TOMAS CONTINUES ON A
WESTWARD TRACK BUT IS EXPERIENCING MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...AND THEREFORE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 62W-66W. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED DUE TO THIS VERTICAL SHEAR...HOWEVER...THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX BY LATE TUESDAY AND AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR RESTRENGTHENING THEREAFTER EXISTS. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 07N12W 05N20W 07N34W 06N43W 08N49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN
11W-16W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM
06N-14N ALONG 34W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN
31W-36W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 06N51W TO
13N49W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 21N87W BUT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN VERY DRY AIR. ELSEWHERE N OF
23N...MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND ALSO EXHIBITS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 28N WITH 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 94W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THESE
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 27N96W TO THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR
CAMERON. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PORTION OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. LOOKING
AHEAD...AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL
INTRODUCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH
STRONG NW TO N WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE AND VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N65W. EMBEDDED BENEATH
THIS FEATURE ALOFT IS TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WHICH CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. GOES-13 SHORTWAVE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WELL WEST OF THE MAIN DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM LOCATED FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 62W-66W...INCLUDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS E
OF 62W. FARTHER WEST...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES
AND MARGINAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 09N-19N BETWEEN
75W-83W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND THIS GENERAL SURFACE WIND PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCING
DOMAIN OF TOMAS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TO NEAR 75W BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 55W
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THIS SUPPORTS A
1021 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N64W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS WESTWARD ALONG 28N ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPS INTO
THE DISCUSSION ZONE NEAR 32N50W AND EXTENDS AN AXIS S-SW TO
26N52W THAT IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N50W TO A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
26N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE
AZORES NEAR 37N23W. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE TROPICAL EAST ATLC...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED E OF 40W THAT IS PROVIDING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
13N-19N BETWEEN 19W-28W...WHICH INCLUDES THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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