[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON NOV 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 66.5W AT 01/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 185 NM NE OF CURACAO AND ABOUT 230 NM S OF PONCE PUERTO
RICO MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65
KT. TOMAS CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK BUT IS EXPERIENCING
MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THEREFORE SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 61W-65W. A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED DUE TO THIS VERTICAL
SHEAR...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX BY WEDNESDAY
AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RESTRENGTHENING THEREAFTER EXISTS. SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 06N11W 05N20W 08N31W 07N38W 10N49W 08N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
04N-10N BETWEEN 11W-15W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ FROM 05N-13N ALONG 31W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 09N-18N BETWEEN 23W-33W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 05N-13N ALONG 49W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N-12N
BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N87W BUT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN VERY DRY AIR. ELSEWHERE N OF
25N...MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND ALSO EXHIBITS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 28N WITH 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 94W. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR
SKIES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOOKING AHEAD...AN AREA OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL INTRODUCE A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NW GULF BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH STRONG NW TO N
WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE AND VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N62W. EMBEDDED BENEATH
THIS FEATURE ALOFT IS TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WHICH CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. GOES-13 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED WEST OF THE
MAIN DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TOMAS LOCATED FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 61W-65W...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES N OF SAINT
LUCIA. FARTHER WEST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL
PANAMA TO 16N79W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OCCURRING FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 76W-81W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
AND THIS GENERAL WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCING DOMAIN OF TOMAS AS IT TRACKS
WESTWARD TO NEAR 75W BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 55W
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THIS SUPPORTS A
1021 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N64W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS WESTWARD ALONG 28N ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPS INTO
THE DISCUSSION ZONE NEAR 32N51W AND EXTENDS AN AXIS SW TO 25N55W
THAT IS SUPPORTING STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 26N52W TO A
1018 MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 34N48W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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