[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W FROM 03N TO 11N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION...SUPPRESSED BY MID TO UPPER LEVEL SAHARAN AIR LAYER.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W FROM 3N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF  RELATIVE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS
EVIDENT AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS DUE TO SAHARAN AIR NEAR THE
WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W FROM 3N TO 11N MOVING WEST AT 13 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ENTERING THE NORTHEAST SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT
OVER FRENCH GUIANA. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS
IS FOUND INLAND OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA LEONE COAST
NEAR 8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 6N20W 4N30W 6N40W 6.5N50W 8N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF
LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE FROM 3.5N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W.
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT. ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N TO 26N
BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND RE-FORM AGAIN
NEAR THE SAME REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
GULF...A BROAD SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT THIS
EVENING...WITH A LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 28N88W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED
IN A AREA OF CONSIDERABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A WEAK
1010 MB REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS FOUND AT
SURFACE NEAR 18N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE SURFACE LOW
CENTER...FROM 22N85W 18N86W 15N87W. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS
BRINGING WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION WEST OF 83W. COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATE THE CONVECTION WILL LINGER OVER THE SAME REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED CROSSING
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN...SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 74W.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC NEAR
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...PRODUCING MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
THESE ISLANDS AND NEAR WATERS NORTH OF 16N...INCLUDING THE MONA
PASSAGE. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN....DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N67W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER
NORTH OF 24N WES OF 53W. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IN THE MEAN TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL BRING WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR
32N40W AND CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N45W 24N50W
22N54W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 21N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WEST
OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ANALYZED ALONG
23N56W 22N61W 20N67W CONTINUING AS A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHEAR
LINE. WEAKER CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 40 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE MAY LINGER NEAR THE SAME REGION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT SUPPORTS A 1025 MB HIGH WEST OF
PORTUGAL NEAR 40N15W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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