[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 310535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED WITH THE ITCZ.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 10N MOVING W 20 KT. WEAK MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN
5N-8N. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 8N34W TO 7N38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 10N MOVING W 25 KT. WAVE
REMAINS AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND
CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED DUE TO A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO
THE NORTH. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 12N MOVING NW 25 KT. WAVE
HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH LITTLE SIGNATURE IN THE
ATLC WATERS WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 11N MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE
REMAINS COMPLETELY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N24W 5N42W 7N59W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-14W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO NW ALABAMA AND A SECOND WEAKER
UPPER LOW IS OVER EXTREME S TEXAS. THE GULF WATERS CONTINUE TO
BE DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI COAST ACROSS S
LOUISIANA N OF LAKE CHARLES AND OVER E TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW OVER
S TEXAS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO BETWEEN VERA
CRUZ AND CORPUS CHRISTI. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA DUE TO THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA WHICH IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE W CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR AGAIN
TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS TO OVER E CUBA WHERE THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W ALONG THE COAST OF
BELIZE TO GUATEMALA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM NEAR
16N74W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO
TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N70W CONTINUING S
TO OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 13N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W-75W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 80W AND IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 70W TO OVER
THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
BERMUDA WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING MOST OF THE W ATLC
W OF 60W UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE E FLORIDA COAST S OF 29N TO
OVER CUBA. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N45W TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N55W AND A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 22N58W ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC SE OF THE
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NE ALONG
23N49W TO BEYOND 32N30W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200/225 NM SE OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH.
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM OVER CENTRAL
MOROCCO SSW OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 20N27W THEN NARROWING
TO 9N42W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM A
1029 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N27W INTO THE TROPICS TO
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N55W KEEPING SKIES CLEAR THERE
AGAIN TONIGHT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AFRICAN
DUST SPREADING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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