[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1700 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N24W TO 1N23W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD
OF A MOISTURE BULGE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 20W-23W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 7N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSED DUE TO AN AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR
TO THE NORTH. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N48W TO EQ46W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N
BETWEEN 46W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 10N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NE OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 59W-64W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 11N72W TO 1N68W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS BEING
DRAWN TO THE NE IN DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 10N12W 7N20W 4N30W 4N40W 7N50W
6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N
BETWEEN 4W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 17W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 27W-32W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 40W-46W...AND FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 26N E OF 93W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
PENSACOLA FLORIDA NEAR 30N87W ALONG 28N89W TO THE CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N92W. THIS WEAK SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN IN MAINLY W-NW FLOW
ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE N. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS ACROSS THE BASIN KEEPING WINDS LIGHT OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DISSIPATE AS WEAK RIDGING SETS
UP OVER THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN SW-W FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM AGATHA
CURRENTLY SE OF GUATEMALA HAVE ALREADY MADE THEIR WAY ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN CENTRAL AMERICA AFFECTING GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.
AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ENE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SRN
NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE JUST W OF HAITI
NEAR 20N73W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARE ENHANCING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 69W-77W
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SRN HISPANIOLA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ELSEWHERE.
FARTHER E...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 15N E OF 69W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 59W-64W DUE
TO THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W. EXPECT CONTINUED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF THE ERN COAST OF
FLORIDA W OF 80W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH MODERATELY DRY
AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR W ATLC UNDER FAIR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
COVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N62W.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER ALONG
26N65W TO 26N70W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WARM FROM EXTENDS E OF THE
CENTER TO NEAR 28N58W CONNECTING WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS
TO THE NE OUT OF THE AREA NEAR 32N46W. THIS COLD FRONT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TO THE N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 42W-63W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N69W TO 24N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM N OF ERN SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 11N58W TO N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
55W-64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N
BETWEEN 45W-57W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED
BY A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 36N19W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR
ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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