[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0550 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24.5W FROM 2N TO 9N MOVING WEST ABOUT 14
KT. THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32.5W FROM 1N TO 7N MOVING WEST NEAR 12
KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...AND CORRELATES WELL
WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN
29W AND 34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W FROM 1N TO 8N MOVING WEST AT 16 KT.
THE WAVE ALSO LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING INLAND OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. WEAK CONVECTION
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MERGED
WITH THE ALREADY HIGH VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VENEZUELA...HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 140 NM OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA EAST OF 66W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
10N15W WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 5N30W 4N40W 5N50W 6N60W. ASIDE AREAS
OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE NORTHEAST GULF SUPPORTING A
WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO THE GULF ALONG 30N84W TO
27N83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COAST DUE
TO STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THE SURFACE LOW. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY
W-NW FLOW ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK 1011 MB HIGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF CENTERED NEAR 27N95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE WEAK ACROSS MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MOVING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TOWARDS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM JAMAICA
TO THE NORTH COAST OF NICARAGUA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
HISPANIOLA. BOTH SURFACE TROUGHS ARE GENERATING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THEM. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES VERY HIGH VALUES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN...AND AS A RESULT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ADDITION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA IS ADDING TO THE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST/CENTRAL COAST OF
VENEZUELA AND OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES SOUTH OF 16N. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL LINGER
THROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO COVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 30N60W CONTINUING SW TO A 1005 MB LOW
NEAR 29N62W. THEN...A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES WSW FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 26N70W. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 32N45W TO PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A BROAD
FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC EAST OF 35W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N17W PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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