[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 8N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS AS IT LIES WITHIN A
MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
24W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 8N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS AND ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 36W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOTED
MOVING OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE FAR
SE CARIBBEAN SEA. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
56W-63W. FARTHER SOUTH...INLAND OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA...THE
WAVE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 53W-65W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN
COLOMBIA EXTENDING FROM 11N71W TO 1N70W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
ALONG 78W CONTINUES TO FRACTURE ENERGY AND MOISTURE N-NE FROM
THE WAVE. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH INSTABILITY IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 67W-73W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LOSING IDENTITY AS IT SLOWS AND MOVES WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SE
PACIFIC REGION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N80W ACROSS CENTRAL PANAMA TO
COLOMBIA NEAR 3N76W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. VERY MUCH LIKE THE WAVE
TO THE EAST PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO
FRACTURE ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO THE NE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONSOONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE PACIFIC...THIS WAVE WILL
BEGIN TO LOSE IDENTITY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N19W 4N34W 8N58W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 10W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS DRY AND CLEAR THIS EVENING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DRY AIR ALOFT
ACROSS THE BASIN EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE FLOW COVERS THE REGION...HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
FROM NEAR GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI TO 27N87W CREATES A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 29N BETWEEN
87W-91W. ALSO... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NE GULF...AND ARE
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO NW FLOW WEST OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 78W. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS HOWEVER...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT N-NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INCLUDING
EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO GENERATING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS BETWEEN 65W-80W. HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO
RICO. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINING N OF 20N
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 31N74W AND
SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THE 1006 MB LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 31N73W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 27N65W.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED WITH REGARDS TO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS LOCATED IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH WINDS TO
GALE FORCE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH AND WESTERN SIDES
OF THE LOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
N OF 31N BETWEEN 75W-80W AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SE OF THE LOW...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 78W THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD TO THE NW BAHAMAS. EAST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NE
BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLC S OF 26N BETWEEN
60W-72W. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN
45W-60W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLC E OF 45W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED
SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 34W25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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