[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE W ATLC NE OF THE BAHAMAS.
TWO 1007 MB CYCLONIC SURFACE CIRCULATIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANALYZED
NEAR 28N70W AND 25N69W. THE SERN CENTER IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
AS THE NWRN CENTER SLOWLY PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE NNW. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH BOTH CIRCULATIONS TO TURKS AND CAICOS
ALONG 28N70W 25N68W 20N72W. THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WELL REMOVED TO THE NE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 22N BETWEEN 56W-62W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 62W-74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 56W-60W. GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO
THE NE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N29W TO 4N30W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT
THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION
IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N50W TO 4N48W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 47W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER ERN VENEZUELA ALONG 62W S OF 8N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 7N20W 7N30W
5N40W 7N50W 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 16W-19W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-46W...AND BETWEEN 51W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND CLEAR TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO TO LOUISIANA. THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH CENTERED IN THE W ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
RIDGING COVERS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE NE. LIGHT
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHING 15 KT IN
THE WRN GULF. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO SHIFT WWD AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DIPS ACROSS THE NE GULF

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND W ATLC AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CENTERED IN THE W ATLC. MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ALONG WITH MODERATE MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF HONDURAS AS WELL AS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO N OF 17N BETWEEN 64W-74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
14N BETWEEN 75W-84W NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
E PACIFIC ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NEAR 12N82W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
ARE ALSO N OF THE VENEZUELA COAST FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 71W-73W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGHING COVERS THE W ATLC BRINGING DISTURBED
WEATHER ACROSS A LARGE AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 56W-72W. A PAIR OF
SURFACE CIRCULATIONS ARE NE OF THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
SURFACE LOW AND AREAS OF CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE FEATURE IN
A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING
IT WITH AXIS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO N OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 55W. DRY AIR IS ALSO
BEING ENTRAINED AROUND THE ERN HALF OF THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAIR W OF 74W S OF 30N. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS LOCATED
SW AND NW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND ATLC. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS
THE ERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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