[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE WEST OF 60W. SOME OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW EVEN REACHES INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS ONE 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N70W TO A SECOND 1005 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N69W...AND CONTINUING TO HAITI
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS FOR THE SOUTHERN LOW CENTER TO DISSIPATE...AND FOR THE
NORTHERN LOW CENTER TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 28N72W TO 28N65W
TO 23N61W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 11 FT TO 19 FT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND
60W. OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W TO THE SOUTH OF
9N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS WITH
THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W FROM 3N TO 9N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 5N30W 5N41W INTO FRENCH
GUIANA AND SURINAME NEAR 5N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF LIBERIA TO GUINEA. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 9N18W 8N22W 6N30W 5N40W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM FRENCH GUIANA
TO VENEZUELA TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AND IT COVERS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF MEXICO...BEYOND
THE FAR WEST TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE REST OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...A COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE IN
MEXICO WITH THE FLOW AROUND A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AROUND
A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS INTO THE
AREA NEAR 15N78W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA
TO THE SOUTH OF 10.5N BETWEEN 80W AND 81.5W. THE ITCZ
IS ON TOP OF PANAMA AT THIS TIME. A NARROW PART OF THE 15N78W
TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS NICARAGUA AND BEYOND INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND
EL SALVADOR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 15N77W BEYOND 20N68W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 32N34W 25N36W TO 18N35W.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO TO 27N23W. NEITHER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY DISCERNIBLE PRECIPITATION. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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