[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 3N30W 4N42W TO NE BRAZIL
NEAR EQ50W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
ALONG 41W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 37W-42W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ELSEWHERE OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 8W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N
BETWEEN 16W-18W...FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 24W-27W...AND FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W
PRODUCING SURFACE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A 995 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 25-30 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN
88W-93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS OVER E TEXAS...NOW WITHIN 60 NM OF
CORPUS CHRISTIE MOVING SLOWLY E. SMOKE AND HAZE IS NOTED OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF MOVING N. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NO RAIN OR
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W
PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS E
OF THE FRONT. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN  FROM 14N-17N E OF
73W. RADAR IMAGERY OVER PUERTO RICO SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL
N OF THE ISLAND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SHOWERS N OF PUERTO RICO TO
MOVE S OVER THE ISLAND AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 23N50W
20N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1025
MB HIGH IS NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N22W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW
TO 27N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 35W-70W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 20W-35W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N E OF 20W.
EXPECT...THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E TO 32N35W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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