[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N23W 4N25W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N
E OF 07W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS FROM
2N-8N ALONG 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N
BETWEEN 19W-28W. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS AND
NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 103W AS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT AT
THE SURFACE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS WITH A STRONG SQUALL LINE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS APPROACHING THE TEXAS GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...SE WINDS UP
TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE FORECAST...THEN AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES INTO THE NW GULF WATERS...NW WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY SE WINDS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF
THE BAHAMAS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 30N77W. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MARCHES ACROSS
THE GULF AND LOCATES OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND
CONTINUES ALONG 18N74W 15N78W TO 10N79W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE
FRONT...INCLUDING MOST OF HAITI...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND
JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS OF
WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AS CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL TRADES
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE THUS SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CUBA TO
ACROSS HONDURAS AND IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR SKIES UNDER
15-20 KT E-SE WINDS. ELSEWHERE...E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FAIR
SKIES ALSO PREVAIL WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
EXTENDING FROM A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR
30N77W. ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N69W TO 30N75W.
NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE. FARTHER
EAST HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ENTERING THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 36N61W TO 29N71W. IT
SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N53W AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N54W TO 25N60W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE LOCATED WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE SE
BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND 47W. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS AN
AXIS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND BEYOND
32N41W. THIS SUPPORTS A STRONG 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE
AZORES NEAR 34N31W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM WEST OF
PORTUGAL NEAR 36N15W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN TO THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ACROSS THE EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS FROM 28N15W TO BEYOND 32N13W
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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