[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS OVER HAITI IS BEGINNING TO
LOSE ITS PUNCH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO DISPERSE OVER
HAITI AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
SHOWERS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS MOVING OVER HAITI AND THE MODELS
INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES GREATLY OVER
THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THEREFORE...THIS FEATURE WILL BE DROPPED FROM
THE SPECIAL FEATURES LATER THIS MORNING.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 5N21W 2N38W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 47W. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N E OF 3W
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 4W-7W...WITHIN
90 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 15W-24W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE
ITCZ FROM 20W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT WITH A 1019 MB
HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE E GULF WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
PATCHES OF HAZE AND FOG ARE OVER THE FAR W GULF INLAND AND
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM MATAGORDA BAY TEXAS TO MEXICO
BETWEEN TUXPAN AND VERACRUZ. OTHERWISE THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E TODAY AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W E OF JAMAICA TO PANAMA NEAR 9N79W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA 19N71W TO
13N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT S OF
15N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM
W OF THE FRONT N OF 18N TO OVER E CUBA. THE UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTING THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE FAR E GULF OF
MEXICO AND W ATLC TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BRINGING DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT TO THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS BORDER. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER N VENEZUELA AND EXTENDS INTO THE
CENTRAL AND W TROPICAL ATLC. THUS CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND THE E CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC
WITH SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THE US COAST AND BERMUDA
SUPPORTING A WEAK 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N70W MOVING SW
INTO THE REGION. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N61W ALONG 27N61W THEN
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS BECOMING STATIONARY AS
IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
A LINE FROM 20N73W TO BEYOND 32N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE
E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 21N69W ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N71W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO BEYOND 32N42W WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERING THE SAME AREA ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR
32N37W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 23N E OF 25W TO
THE COAST OF W AFRICA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N16W EXTENDING SW TO 23N25W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO
21N32W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE FRONT N
OF 26N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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