[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER S
PORTION OF HISPANIOLA. A BROADENING MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION REMAINS NEAR 15N73W. THE SURFACE TROUGH AT 0900 UTC
EXTENDS FROM 18N72W TO 13N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N TO OVER COLOMBIA
BETWEEN 70W-74W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N3W 3N10W 4N20W 1N39W THEN CROSSING
THE EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO
INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 10W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS
OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO 8N BETWEEN
10W-20W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 20W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC
WITH SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO
THE W ATLC SUPPORTING REMNANT ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 83W-88W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS LIMITING SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A 1020 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 27N89W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TODAY AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AT 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR
20N73W E OF JAMAICA TO 15N78W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
INLAND OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 17N ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BRINGING DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER NE VENEZUELA AND
EXTENDS INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 43W AND N OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THIS UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N
OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND S
NICARAGUA AT THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF THE FRONT TO 74W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC WITH
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 0900
UTC NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N68W ACROSS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200/250 NM E
OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT.
A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT AT 0900 UTC EXTENDING THROUGH
32N72W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF CUBA
NEAR 22N77W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE TROUGH TO 80W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N57W
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NEAR 31N44W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 12W-33W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N18W EXTENDING SW TO 26N28W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG TO 21N49W THEN DISSIPATES TO 21N58W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BISECTED BY THIS FRONT WITH A 1022
MB HIGH N OF THE FRONT NEAR 28N46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE






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