[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAR 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 74W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...
FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE
CURRENT DEVELOPING COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA...FROM 30N72W TO 24N75W TO 21N78W TO 17N83W...IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS
OR SO. THE FRONT AND THE MOISTURE ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE AREA
OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT MORE OR LESS THE SAME TIME. THIS
FORECAST SETS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN HAITI
AND THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TOMORROW AFTER 19/1200 UTC.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO RIGHT NOW FROM THE COASTS OF
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W...INCLUDING IN
THE GULF DE URABA AND IN THE GOLFO DEL DARIEN OF COLOMBIA.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 5N20W TO
2N30W 1N40W 1N45W...CURVING INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W TO 1S53W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N8W 6N13W 4N20W 2N27W 1N38W 3N48W
4N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 100W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE WEST OF 70W..
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS
THE AREA FROM MEXICO ALONG 100W...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 70W.
A 1005 MB DEVELOPING GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N76W.
A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N72W
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W...BEYOND 19N80W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE WEST OF 50W TO THE NORTH OF 20N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH
OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W...IN BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA NEAR 9N78W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO 19N80W TO COASTAL HONDURAS
NEAR 16N87W. NO PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
THROUGH 18N63W...SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...
THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO ITS BORDER
WITH HAITI NEAR 18N72W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN
50W AND 70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. THE
WATER VAPOR LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 40N33W.
THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N26W 28N30W 24N40W 21N50W TO 19N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 15N17W OFF THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN SENEGAL...TO
11N22W...AND 4N44W 7N52W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W SIX HOURS AGO...WITH
SOME WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TOPS BEING SHEARED
WITH TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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