[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 2N20W TO 1N30W 3N44W...
CURVING INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
53W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN
22W AND 27W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM HONDURAS
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST FROM
20N INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW...TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 85W AND 107W...
ACCOMPANIES A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE GULF COASTAL AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO SOUTH
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 18N98W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
MEXICO BEYOND FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 29N...OVER LAND...TO THE
EAST OF LOUISIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO COVER THE
AREAS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS OFF NICARAGUA INTO
HONDURAS AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
SPILLS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS THROUGH 21N79W IN CUBA BEYOND
16N86W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 20N65W ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 17N72W TO THE
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE IN
HISPANIOLA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IS
WEAK. ONE REGIME OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ORIGINATES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COVERS THE AREA. A SECOND AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA TO THE SOUTH OF 10N ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH
OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 30W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 30W.
ONE AREA OF COMPLEX CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH MORE THAN ONE CYCLONIC
CENTER...IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 45W AND 66W. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 30N50W 25N60W AND 23N70W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W 27N50W 24N60W
22N78W. A SECOND AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO
31N38W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N38W TO 26N50W
22N60W 20N65W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...TO 17N72W TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
200 NM TO 300 NM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 28N21W 25N40W
23N50W 18N62W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 23N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 27W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH WESTERN ALGERIA TO WESTERN MAURITANIA...TOWARD THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE
THAT GOES FROM 31N16W TO 22N28W TO 16N42W TO 12N58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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