[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAR 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N15W 2N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 46W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 6N14W TO 3N21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...REACHING
INTO THE FAR NW GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD...IT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 29N95W TO 18N93W OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 90W
TO INLAND OVER SE TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WANES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD FROM NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS TO
OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MUCH OF THE
GULF WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
GULF E OF 90W...EXTENSIVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
BEING ADVECTED FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ACROSS CUBA...
PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA TO 17N76W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE
FRONT BETWEEN 69W-76W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES ZONAL
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION THAT EXTENDS AN EAST TO WEST AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 8N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC
NEAR 37N62W. IT CONTINUES TO ROTATE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE W ATLC BETWEEN 29N-37N W OF 50W
AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N57W THAT CONTINUES SW ALONG 29N60W TO 25N70W. SHIP AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT INDICATE LOWER DEWPOINTS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...AND
THEREFORE A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS TAKING HOLD OVER THE W
ATLC. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N39W AND EXTENDS W-SW ALONG 26N50W TO 21N66W BECOMING
STATIONARY TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. ELSEWHERE N
OF 26N...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 20W AND CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 15W-35W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM NW OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 30N20W TO 17N40W THEN WESTWARD TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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