[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N30W 2N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 8W-16W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM
THE LOUISIANA COAST TO OVER CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN.
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATING THE BASIN THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. THIS CLOUDINESS RIDES WITHIN A BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-130 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ANOTHER REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO
SETTLE IN OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PROVIDE
MOST OF THE GULF WITH NORTHERLY WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 17N76W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND A WEAKENING ATMOSPHERIC FORCING MECHANISM IS
CONTINUING TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EXTREME EASTERN
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 60W-65W.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO BEYOND 20N60W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS AND CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND
SUPPORTS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OF ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 32N. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N55W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG 25N60W TO 20N68W WHERE IT BECOMES
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND
40W. A WARM FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION AND
EXTENDS FROM 27N44W TO BEYOND 32N52W. THE CONVECTION PRIMARILY
LOCATES ITSELF EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND UNDER AN AREA OF
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RESIDES ALONG 40W. FARTHER EAST...A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND IS
ANALYZED FROM 32N20W TO 27N21W TO 22N26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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