[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 4N20W TO 1N30W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 39W...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 7W AND 15W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE WEST OF 60W...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE U.S.A. TO THE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 102W AND 116W. A CYCLONIC CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN NEW MEXICO NOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 200 NM
TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N114W 22N106W 25N97W...TO 27N90W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS 28N81W IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FLOW IN THIS MOISTURE BAND IS
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS ALL OF
MEXICO...BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC AS THE FLOW ENTERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND REMAINING ANTICYCLONIC ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS TO 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FLOW IS CYCLONIC TO
THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 100W AND 112W IN MEXICO...AND TO THE
NORTH OF 30W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 60W AND 100W. THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N58W TO 29N60W TO 21N70W...BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO
27N70W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 24N79W. A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF
CLOUDS IS MOVING EASTWARD BEHIND THE TROUGH. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT...AROUND
A 1016 MB YUCATAN PENINSULA HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
24N87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 65W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 21N70W JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES TO JAMAICA...16N80W...AND TO
COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MOROCCO...CUTTING ACROSS THE WESTERN SAHARA AND MAURITANIA TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 10N45W. THE TROUGH IS EVEN SOMEWHAT
INDISTINCT IN MOST PLACES TO THE SOUTH OF 20N SIMPLY BECAUSE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
10N60W 10N40W BEYOND 24N17W BLOCKS THE TOTAL VIEW OF THE TROUGH
IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 25N25W TO 22N28W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COLD FRONT BUT NOT READILY APPARENT FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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