[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL LIBERIAN NEAR 7N11W TO 3N24W TO
3N41W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 9W
AND 35W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN
40W AND 55W IN BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE WEST OF 60W...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE U.S.A. TO THE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 102W AND 116W. A CYCLONIC CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE U.S.A. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N124W 20N112W 25N100W
TO 26N93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN
FLORIDA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FLOW IN THIS MOISTURE
BAND IS SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS
ALL OF MEXICO...BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC AS THE FLOW ENTERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND REMAINING ANTICYCLONIC ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMAS. THE FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC TO THE NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 30N66W TO
24N70W BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO 27N77W. A WELL-DEFINED
AREA OF CLOUDS IS MOVING EASTWARD BEHIND THE TROUGH. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT...
AROUND A 1016 MB YUCATAN PENINSULA HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 21N87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N76W
24N70W 27N64W BEYOND 31N59W. SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 58W AND 66W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TO JAMAICA...TO 16N79W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 16N79W TO SAN ANDRES Y
PROVIDENCIA OF COLOMBIA...TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N85W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM TO 150 NM TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT FROM 10N TO 17N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO
23N26W. THE TROUGH DISAPPEARS FROM VIEW BECAUSE OF A SHIELD OF
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF
9N58W 11N40W 19N30W BEYOND 26N20W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 27N27W TO 22N32W. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLD FRONT BUT NOT READILY APPARENT FROM
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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