[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN MAR 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N12W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W AND
INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-7N BETWEEN 8W-15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS
ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS AND MID-ATLC STATES RESULTING IN
OVERALL FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTED
ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ALONG 93W. WHILE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE BASIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...E TO SE WINDS CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE AND ARE PROVIDING
FOR LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW
GULF WATERS N OF 25N W OF 95W. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE GULF
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE
OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN OVER ANGUILLA THEN ALONG 17N66W 15N69W 13N74W TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE FRONT TO THE
NW ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM SE...AND 300 NM
NW OF THE FRONT N OF 14N...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND A MAJORITY OF
HISPANIOLA. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE STALLED OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO S OF 14N BETWEEN THE FRONT ALONG 75W
AND 81W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY
BROAD TROUGHING WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N68W TO 13N76W.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...N-NE SURFACE FLOW AND DRY
STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA CARIBBEAN SEA COAST. SE
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...SE SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES AND IS
PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER SE OF A LINE FROM ANTIGUA
TO THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC AND
SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDING INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THE LEADING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N40W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 24N50W AND INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN NEAR ANGUILLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE
AND 360 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE SECONDARY FRONT IS A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 32N55W TO 27N72W. WHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT...AN
EARLIER WINDSAT PASS AROUND 07/1042 UTC CONFIRMED MARGINALLY
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWING A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWING
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL NORTH AND EASTERN ATLC...A DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N24W AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN SURINAME NEAR 06N56W TO BEYOND 32N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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