[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 7N12W WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 2.5N30W 2N40W TO THE NORTHEAST
BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 28W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BRINGING DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTH BASIN...COVERING MUST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTH OF
21N...AND THE WESTERN BASIN SOUTH OF 26N WEST OF 94W. FOG AND
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ARE LOCATED OVER THIS AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO HOLD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NW GULF WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE
MONA PASSAGE...CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE COAST OF PANAMA ALONG 18N68W 15N74W 10N79W. SATELLITE
INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOSE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND THEREFORE THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
CONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW
SCATTER SHOWERS REMAINING NEAR THE FRONT. OTHER OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INDICATE LOW STRATUS CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 80W. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER DRY SUBSIDENT AIR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WITHIN THE DISCUSSION
AREA IS INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTING A SURFACE
1022 MB HIGH NEAR 23N39W. THUS...FAIR WEATHER IS SEEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 20W AND 58W.
OUTSIDE THIS REGION...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH 32N47W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N55W 22N61W 19N68W.
SATELLITE INFRA-RED DATA SHOWS MODERATE CONVECTION 90 NM EAST OF
THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N...AND WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150
NM WEST OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF 27N. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE TAIL END
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS INTO
THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST ALONG 32N12W 28N14W 25N18W. SCATTER
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. LOOK FOR THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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