[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU MAR 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N20W 2N30W
1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 14W AND 25W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N26W 3N40W
3N45W 5N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 50W...
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA EVERYWHERE ELSE AWAY FROM THE STATIONARY
FRONT...
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST/THE
BORDER WITH LOUISIANA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO HONDURAS
AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL SECTIONS OF COSTA
RICA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON THE SURFACE MAP
TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 53W AND 80W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
NORTH OF 20N. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AROUND WHICH THIS
SYSTEM IS BASED...IS NEAR 39N66W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND AS
A 981 MB STORM CENTER NEAR 38N66W ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS.
THE COLD FRONT THAT EMANATES FROM THE 981 MB STORM CENTER PASSES
THROUGH 32N57W TO 25N63W TO 20N70W TO SOUTH CENTRAL HAITI TO
17N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES 17N76W
TO 14N79W...CURVING TO THE PANAMA COAST THAT IS NEAR 9N80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 24N62W 29N56W BEYOND 32N50W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT READILY
APPARENT JUST FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONE. A WARM FRONT ALSO IS
PART OF THIS SYSTEM...GOING FROM A TRIPLE POINT THAT IS NEAR
36N56W AND PASSING THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N50W. THE COLD FRONT IS
MARKED BY A ROPE CLOUD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT IS MOST CLEARLY
EVIDENT TO THE WEST OF 60W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF
THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 22N20W
TO 11N32W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 39N24W ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 999 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 39N27W. THE COLD FRONT THAT EMANATES FROM THE 39N27W LOW
PRESSURE CENTER PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 26N30W TO 21N40W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N12W TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N15W IN THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 25N23W 19N35W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 24N44W...FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN 41W AND 49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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