[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N30W 3N42W TO THE NE
BRAZIL COAST NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
16W-28W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN
28W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR CARDENAS.
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE BIG
BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W SW TO NEAR 24N88W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY N OF 24N E OF 88W AND CONTINUE MOVING
QUICKLY E-NE THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS LARGELY THE
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATING ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
IS HELPING TO DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN THE 994 MB LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT
ARE OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF E OF 92W. THIS AREA OF
NORTHERLY WINDS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND ENTERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N82W CONTINUING SW ALONG 20N84W TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N89W. W TO NW WINDS UP TO 25 KT FOLLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 6N49W TO 10N60W THEN
WESTWARD ALONG 11N ACROSS COSTA RICA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE E OF 80W. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 994 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR
34N78W WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N78W
TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING N
OF 27N W OF 72W TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC. THIS LOW
IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NE AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW
AND COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE SE CONUS AND A LARGE PORTION OF
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. FARTHER
EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
WITH AXIS ALONG 64W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 26N63W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 32N38W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 25N44W TO 22N52W BECOMING
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 20N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
23N-28N W OF 32W TO THE COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING LARGELY REMAINING N
OF 33N. ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N28W PROVIDING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MOROCCO NEAR
28N11W TO S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N17W. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS LOCATED N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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