[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
2S48W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 3N25W AND 3N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 7N12W 5N20W 3N30W...AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 3N30W 2N40W 2N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
MOVING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CENTER INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. A 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN OCCLUDED FRONT GOES FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO A TRIPLE POINT THAT IS NEAR 30N86W. A WARM FRONT
GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO THE FLORIDA GULF COAST NEAR 30N84W.
A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT 24N90W AND 20N95W.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...INCLUDING ACROSS FLORIDA. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE BEING EXPERIENCED TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT...AND TO THE NORTH OF 26N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT. SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 13 FEET IN THESE AREAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N61W TO
20N64W AND THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N69W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND
80W TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...AND ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF CUBA. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS A REMNANT
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT WAS NOT APPARENT AT 02/0600 UTC. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN
72W AND 82W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS RELATED TO LARGER-SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW PRESSURE COVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 40W. A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 39N58W.
A 978 MB STORM CENTER IS NEAR 40N61W. THE COLD FRONT THAT
EMANATES FROM THE 978 MB STORM CENTER EVENTUALLY PASSES THROUGH
32N44W TO 25N50W TO 21N61W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
21N61W TO 20N64W AND THE MONA PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
25N49W 29N37W BEYOND 32N33W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE REST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
THAT IS MARKED BY A DEFINITE LINE OF CLOUDS...PASSES THROUGH
32N51W TO 27N60W TO 27N70W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN AFRICA/EUROPE
AND 30W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
NEAR 38N18W. A 983 MB STORM CENTER IS NEAR 38N18W. THE COLD
FRONT THAT EMANATES FROM THE 987 MB STORM CENTER PASSES THROUGH
32N14W TO THE EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N24W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 25N OVER THE WATERS TO THE EAST OF 20W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N35W...FROM 13N TO 30N BETWEEN 26W AND THE
32N44W 21N61W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N74W...FROM
20N TO 30N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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