[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2350 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX IS NEAR 24.4N 97.6W AT 30/2300 UTC.
ALEX IS MOVING WESTWARD 12 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 50
MILES/85 KM NORTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO...AND ABOUT 105
MILES/170 KM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 84 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAINFALL TOTALS IN MEXICO ARE
RANGING FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE CENTER
FROM THE MEXICO COAST AT 23N TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N. OTHER
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT3 KNHC...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...MOVING WESTWARD
10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES OF
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW
LEVEL WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH MODEL POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANALYSIS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 11N
BETWEEN 26W AND 34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA ALONG 62W. MOST
OF THE MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
IS FOUND INLAND...LEAVING JUST A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF WEAK
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 61W
AND 64W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 8N26W 7N40W...INTO NORTHERN
GUYANA 8N60W. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 30W...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 130
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH
AMERICA. OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS...MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WILL BE EMERGING FROM WEST AFRICA INTO THE FAR EAST
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...COVERING THE COASTAL WATERS OF
GUINEA...SIERRA LEONE...AND NORTHERN LIBERIA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE ALEX DOMINATES THE WEATHER PICTURE ACROSS THE BASIN.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM ALEX AND COVERS
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF ALEX. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE FAR
WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ON THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF E OF 86W...INCLUDING INLAND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF
80W...PROVIDING DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THIS REGION. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND
JAMAICA. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 24N61W INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N65W.
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100N NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N77W THAT IS JUST OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 30N21W...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N42W...TO THE 21N57W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS ROTATING
AROUND 21N57W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 25N60W 21N63W
17N64W...GENERATING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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