[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX IS NEAR 24.4N 96.2W AT 30/1800 UTC.
ALEX IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 6 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT
110 MILES/175 KM TO EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO...AND
ABOUT 130 MILES/210 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
RAINFALL TOTALS IN MEXICO ARE RANGING FROM APPROXIMATELY
8 INCHES IN THE STATES OF CHIAPAS AND GUERRERO...TO
APPROXIMATELY 12 INCHES IN THE STATE OF OAXACA. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE CENTER FROM
THE MEXICO COAST AT 20N TO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS TO THE
NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 89W IN MISSISSIPPI AND REALLY CLOSE TO THE
BORDER OF LOUISIANA WITH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT3 KNHC...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W TO THE SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE POSITION OF THIS WAVE HAS BEEN
CHANGED QUITE A BIT FROM THE 30/0600 UTC POSITION...BASED ON
SUNY-ALBANY AEW DIAGNOSTICS. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE IS APPARENT. SHOWERS MAY BE NEAR
THE WAVE...BUT THEY MAY BE OCCURRING IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N14W TO 9N26W 6N40W...INTO NORTHERN
GUYANA 8N60W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. THE COMPARATIVELY
STRONGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN
20W AND 21W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 43W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE ALEX DOMINATES THE WEATHER PICTURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM ALEX AND COVERS THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF ALEX. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THANKS TO A 26N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO FLORIDA...
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AT A FAR DISTANCE AWAY FROM
HURRICANE ALEX...COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA/THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N74W...TOWARD THE
COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 21N55W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 17N63W AT LEAST IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE FROM
14N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 14N
BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 73W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N76W THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N23W...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N43W...TO THE 21N55W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N63W. WHAT USED TO BE THE
NORTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT NOW IS ALONG 61W/62W TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
IS ALONG 25N58W 21N59W 17N61W. THE 21N55W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net