[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 22.5N 92.7W AT 29/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 335 NM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 380 NM SE OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING N-NW AT 07 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 88W-95W...AND FROM
24N-27N BETWEEN 89W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-29N BETWEEN 83W-98W.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 06N-19N ALONG 18W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
ALSO INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 14W-30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 15W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 01N-14N ALONG 47W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 39W-53W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 43W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 17N83W TO 09N84W AND INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 77W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE AXIS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF
COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS S OF 15N W OF 81W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N20W 04N30W 06N47W 05N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 24W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING SUPPORTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN W
OF 83W. ALEX IS LOCATED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE SW GULF AND
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY N-NW OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GULF PROVIDING FOR A RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT THE
OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX CONTINUES
TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 76W AND IS PROVIDING THIS
AREA WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MUCH OF THIS FLOW IS LADEN WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CUBA
AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT E-SE TRADEWINDS ARE GENERATING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN
77W-82W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 17N83W ALONG THE COAST
IF NICARAGUA TO COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W IS ALSO GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 14N W OF 82W...
INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH OF
HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
IN THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 18N59W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DRIER AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E
OF 69W AS THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD.
HOWEVER...SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 63W-67W...INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC REMAINING LARGELY
W OF 78W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE BAHAMAS
ALONG 29N69W TO 23N72W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 26N73W. SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATES MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN
67W-76W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES
NEAR 34N36W KEEPING GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE BASIN. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS RIDGE...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 24N-29N ALONG 60W. ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL
SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 57W-62W MOVING W-NW. ALOFT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
NEAR 18N59W WHICH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-65W. EAST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS
THE NE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA WATERS N OF 20N E OF 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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