[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 21.4N 91.8W AT 29/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 360 NM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 410 NM SE OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING N-NW AT 07 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55
KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER AND NORTH OF THE
CENTER FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 88W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-26N BETWEEN
85W-99W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 04N-16N ALONG 16W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 14W-30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN
12W-21W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 04N-16N ALONG 45W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 37W-52W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 41W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 17N80W TO 09N84W AND INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 76W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE AXIS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...
AND HONDURAS S OF 15N W OF 83W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N18W 04N36W 06N46W 04N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM  THE
EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 22W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN E OF 95W. ALEX IS LOCATED
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE SW GULF AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SLOWLY N-NW OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF PROVIDING
FOR A RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IN SUPPORT OF THE OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ADJACENT NEAR
COASTAL WATERS W OF 86W THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND IS PROVIDING THIS
AREA WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MUCH OF THIS FLOW IS LADEN WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CUBA
AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT E-SE TRADEWINDS ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 76W-84W. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 17N80W TO COSTA
RICA NEAR 09N84W IS ALSO AIDING IN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS S OF 15N W OF 83W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH OF HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 26N72W. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO 13N73W AND
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR INDICATED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 16N. HOWEVER...SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY TRADES E OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC REMAINING LARGELY
W OF 78W. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS
EVENING. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS ALONG 28N68W TO 23N69W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N72W. SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATES
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 23N-30N
BETWEEN 68W-76W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 34N35W KEEPING GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS RIDGE A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N-27N ALONG 58W. SHALLOW ISOLATED
LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
WESTWARD. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 21N57W WHICH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN
45W-62W. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING COVERS THE NE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA WATERS N OF 20N E
OF 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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