[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290013 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

UPDATED FOR TROPICAL STORM ALEX CURRENT LOCATION AND TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 20.6N 91.6W AT 29/0000
UTC...ABOUT 525 MILES SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...OR 420 MILES ESE
OF TAMPICO MEXICO MOVING NNW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 990 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NE MEXICO AND SE TEXAS. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRAW A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
GENERATING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN
87W-91W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN
91W-92W NEAR THE CENTER FIX...AND FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 91W-94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-32N
BETWEEN 81W-90W COVERING MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO IMPACTING CUBA...AND SE MEXICO
FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 92W-97W. DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL ACCUMULATED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER THESE
AREA...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS STILL HIGH
ON AREAS WHERE THE TERRAIN HAS BECOME SATURATED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE MEXICO. ALEX IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TO THE NW. ALEX IS ALSO FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG 18N14W
6N15W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 10W-18W. UPPER-AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSIS FROM
DAKAR SENEGAL INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL DRY VORTICITY CENTER PASSING
THE STATION AROUND 28/1200 UTC WHICH PRECEDES THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED S OF
10N. THE WAVE IS ALSO W OF A SURGE OF RELATIVE ENHANCED MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 40W-47W...AND
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N79W TO 8N83W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS FOLLOWING A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SEEN ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 77W-81W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 82W-86W ACROSS
COSTA RICA. THE WAVE MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING SOME OF THE
CONVECTION SEEN ACROSS CUBA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N16W 4N29W 5N44W 5N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
N...AND 200 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-40W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 47W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS
BEING DRAWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN. ALEX IS CURRENTLY IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE PRODUCING
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN
87W-91W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN
91W-92W NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM...AND FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN
91W-94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF 91W INCLUDING
MUCH OF SE LOUISIANA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO ERN TEXAS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS IMMEDIATE E ACROSS LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN. THE SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
BUILD ACROSS THE NRN GULF WHICH WILL HELP STEER ALEX TOWARD THE
NW. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN AS
MOISTURE WITH ALEX REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION
AND UPDATES REGARDING ALEX...VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX...AND A TROPICAL
WAVE FROM 16N79W TO 8N83W CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NW CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF CUBA...FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 77W-81W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND
FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 82W-86W ACROSS COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FLARED UP OVER NRN HISPANIOLA
MOST LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING N OF TURKS
AND CAICOS NEAR 25N72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN
CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING CONDITIONS
FAIR. ALOFT...NLY FLOW COVERS THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
WEAK UPPER TROUGHING COVERING THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN
EXTENDING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N72W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES MAY BE ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER NRN VENEZUELA S OF 13N BETWEEN 68W-73W. EXPECT
MOISTURE AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
INFLUENCED BY TROPICAL STORM ALEX AND THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF ERN HISPANIOLA ALONG 68W FROM 21N-26N
SUPPORTED BY A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N72W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 61W-74W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 57W FROM 21N-26N ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A
1030 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 35N35W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS
THE BASIN. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DRY AND
STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER SUPPORTING THE FAIR
WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 60W E OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES
ISLANDS TO NEAR 16N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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