[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KCRP 282216
HLSCRP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM ALEX LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
516 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND IMPACT SOUTH
TEXAS LATER THIS WEEK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND CALHOUN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.5N...LONGITUDE 91.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARANSAS TX. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH NORTHWEST OR
330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A CATEGORY 1
HURRICANE ON TUESDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
AND A SOUTH TEXAS LANDFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THIS IS
A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY EXTEND WELL NORTH OF THE EYE OF THE STORM. GIVEN THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE MAIN THREAT TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. HOWEVER..IT
IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF AT LEAST MINOR DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN SOUTH TEXAS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING
TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU
LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS
TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM
INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS
FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI AROUND 1130 PM CDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

TXZ242>247-290700-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TI.A.0001.100628T2216Z-100702T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KCRP.TR.A.1001.100628T2216Z-000000T0000Z/
KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
516 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
O'CONNOR WITH HURRICANE WATCHES SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY.


...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.
STRONGLY CONSIDER EVACUATING IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...AND DO
SO IF ORDERED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 4 TO
9 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 51 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM ALEX MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION.

...INLAND FLOODING...
THE MAIN THREAT FROM ALEX BASED ON CURRENT TRACK FORECAST WILL BE
DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. INITIAL RAINFALL FORECASTS SUGGEST
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AVERAGING 6 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
AROUND 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD BE ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND AREAS SOUTH BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED
STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE CAUSED BY TROPICAL STORM ALEX. MUCH DEPENDS
ON THE PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR COMBINED STORM SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WATERS UP
TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WITHIN AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST...
RESULTING IN WORST CASE FLOOD INUNDATION UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SURGE ZONE.

AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A GENERAL CONCERN FOR THE CHANCE OF AREAS
OF MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.

$$

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-290700-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TR.A.0001.100628T2216Z-000000T0000Z/
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
516 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR
WITH HURRICANE WATCHES SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT AND BEGIN TO IMPLEMENTS
PLANS AT THIS TIME.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 5 TO
12 PERCENT. THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME
IS UP TO 56 PERCENT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM ALEX MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION. CURRENTLY SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
RISE TO 10 TO 15 FEET DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND 15 TO 20
FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$

MJG


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