[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS NEAR 20.3N 91.7W AT
28/1800 UTC...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 6 KT. THIS POSITION
ALSO IS ABOUT ABOUT 85 MILES/135 KM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OF CAMPECHE MEXICO...AND ABOUT 535 MILES/860 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 88W-92W. A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 6.76 INCHES WAS
OBSERVED IN GUADALAJARA MEXICO...AND A TOTAL OF 1.61 INCHES OF
RAIN WAS OBSERVED IN MERIDA DURING THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD
ENDING AT 28/1200 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NOW ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN
88W AND 94W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT3 KNHC...AND THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER AFRICA ALONG 13W/14W TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN AFRICA FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 12W AND 16W AT THE COAST.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W TO THE SOUTH OF
11N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 42W AND 45W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N77W 13N79W
8N82W...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING/DISSIPATING AND RE-GENERATING
FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO JAMAICA BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.
THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 5N25W 3N35W 5N43W INTO
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N51W.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DOMINATES THE WEATHER PICTURE.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM ALEX BEYOND THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND POSSIBLY/PROBABLY
MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...LOSING ITS
FORM/SHAPE EVENTUALLY AS EVERYTHING JUST SEEMS TO BE ABSORBED
WITH THE FLOW THAT IS AROUND T.S. ALEX. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN
90W AND 94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
T.S. ALEX...COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 75W/THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
EVERYWHERE ELSE TO THE EAST OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE
VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 72W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING/DISSIPATING AND RE-GENERATING
FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO JAMAICA BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.
THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...AND CLOSE TO THE AREA OF THE 17N77W
13N79W 8N82W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 32N
BETWEEN 59W AND 75W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM 24N70W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 70W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS COVER HISPANIOLA FROM EAST TO WEST AND FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...AROUND AND ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND IN A CURVED BAND THAT SPANS THE WATERS FROM 20N
TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N65W
23N68W 20N70W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 56W/57W
FROM 20N TO 28N. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN
53W AND 59W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 30N32W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N43W
TO 20N50W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH
THIS TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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