[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 18.7N 90.6W AT 27/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 10
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GENERATE A BROAD AREA
OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GULF S OF 90N
BETWEEN 82W AND 95W...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO...THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W...THE FAR
EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS E OF 97W FROM 11N TO 16N...AND
REGIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA INCLUDING GUATEMALA...EL
SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND BELIZE. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
ACCUMULATED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER THESE COUNTRIES...THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS STILL HIGH ON AREAS
WHERE THE TERRAIN HAS BECOME SATURATED. ALEX IS EXPECTED TO
RE-STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ONCE IT ENTERS THE WARM WATERS
OF THE GULF IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W FROM 4N TO 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO 10N BETWEEN
34W AND 44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ALSO
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS INLAND OVER EASTERN
VENEZUELA.

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE EMERGING OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF
AFRICA INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICA COAST AT
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W...WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 8N40W
4N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N
TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 40W. SCATTER WEAK CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX...CURRENTLY CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR THE CITY OF ESCARCEGA...ARE SPREADING
ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF S OF 90N BETWEEN 82W AND 95W. THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ALEX IS EXPECTED TO
RE-STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ONCE IT ENTERS THE WARM
WATERS OF THE GULF IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WNW
WITH STRONG CONVECTION AFFECTING THE W AND NW COASTAL WATERS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION AND UPDATES
REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.NCH.NOAA.GOV

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX IS IS NOW OVER THE WEST
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEVERTHELESS....STRONG BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION WILL LINGER IN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS ALEX CONTINUES ITS WNW TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. PART OF THE ITCZ CROSSES THE FAR SW BASIN...STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 14N W OF 74W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW ATLANTIC IS GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION TO THE FAR NE BASIN N OF 16N E OF 67W. A TROPICAL
WAVE CROSSES THE SOUTH CENTRAL BASIN ALONG 72W S OF 14N. MOST OF
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS INLAND OVER EASTERN
VENEZUELA. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN
ISLANDS...WITH THE AXIS ANALYZED FROM 27N64W TO 20N66W. THIS
FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING AROUND
23N67W AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 27N
BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT IS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AROUND A
BROAD 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N35W...PROVIDING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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