[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
WWWW UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 89.9W AT 27/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 94 NM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER TROPICAL STORM
ALEX PROVIDING OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS BUT TO THE SOUTH.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 20N TO THE COAST OF
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA. ALL OTHER DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA/S MEXICO AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 22N W OF 83W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DUE TO THE DRY
AIR THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
ALSO REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE CONTINUES
TO MOVE S ALONG THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N21W 7N39W 4N50W 6N58W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 36W-43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO 6N BETWEEN 19W-41W WITH SMALL
CLUSTERS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 13W-19W AND WITHIN
120 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 56W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO NEAR 26N99W. THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER TROPICAL STORM ALEX COVERS MUCH OF THE
GULF GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N78W OVER S FLORIDA ALONG 27N85W 25N93W
TO MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N96W. THIS LEAVES THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM ALEX
LOCATED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W ANCHORED NEAR TROPICAL STORM ALEX
AND EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FAR SW ATLC. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 62W-77W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-18N E OF
66W ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 12N73W TO THE
TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA
DUE TO CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER TROPICAL STORM ALEX. THUS...ONLY THE SE CARIBBEAN
RATHER TRANQUIL THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR TROPICAL STORM ALEX AND
COVERS THE SW ATLC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 26N W OF 78W WHILE
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC DIPPING S
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND IS CENTERED NEAR 24N67W. THE UPPER LOW
IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N62W TO
20N65W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
15N-21N BETWEEN 58W-63W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH...ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N42W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W TO
27N78W KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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