[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 89.0W AT 27/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 47 NM SW OF CHETUMAL AND ABOUT 145 NM OF CAMPECHE
MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER TROPICAL STORM ALEX PROVIDING OUTFLOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS. ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N W OF 80W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A
WEAK CYCLONIC SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
HOWEVER THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WAVE REMAINS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH PARTIALLY MASKING
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND ALSO REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 635-69W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N20W 9N32W 6N43W 6N55W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO
9N E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN
20W-27W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS FROM 10N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 31W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS TEXAS TO NE MEXICO TO NEAR 25N100W.
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER TROPICAL STORM ALEX COVERS MUCH OF
THE GULF GIVING THE AREA DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 14N80W ACROSS THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG
27N88W 24N93W TO MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM ALEX
LOCATED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ANCHORED NEAR TROPICAL STORM ALEX
AND EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FAR W ATLC. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO
EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE S COAST
OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N E OF 65W ACROSS THE LEEWARD
AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS LEAVES THE SE CARIBBEAN RATHER TRANQUIL
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER TROPICAL STORM ALEX COVERS THE W ATLC
S OF 26N W OF 75W WHILE A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N66W. THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 27N62W TO 19N65W GENERATING DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN
56W-62W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
ATLC BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE
SURFACE TROUGH...ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 34N41W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W TO 30N76W KEEPING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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