[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT
26/0900 UTC. TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 84.9W AT
26/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 190 NM E OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 220 NM
ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER T.S. ALEX PROVIDING OUTFLOW IN
ALL QUADRANTS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF
LINE FROM 18N84W TO 16N87W THEN N TO 19N88W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 11N-21N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
HOWEVER THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. A WEAK CYCLONIC
SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE REMAINS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH PARTIALLY MASKING
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND ALSO REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 62W-66W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 7N19W 8N29W 6N40W 7N47W 6N55W
9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 14W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM 3N19W TO 5N26W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA S OF 8N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
32W-50W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 6N50W TO 12N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING WSW ACROSS S TEXAS TO NE MEXICO
TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 26N100W. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER TROPICAL STORM ALEX COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF S OF 25N GIVING THE S GULF DENSE CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE
FROM SW FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W ALONG 25N89W TO MEXICO IN THE W BAY
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA ALONG 83W/84W FROM 25N-29N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC OVER THE NE GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH JUST OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR PENSACOLA. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE GULF BUT
LEAVING MOST OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL STORM ALEX LOCATED IN
THE W CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES W CARIBBEAN W OF
70W ANCHORED NEAR TROPICAL STORM ALEX AND EXTENDING INTO THE S
GULF OF MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA BETWEEN 75W-80W. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
66W-70W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LEAVING THE SE CARIBBEAN RATHER TRANQUIL THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W ANCHORED NEAR 30N75W
WITH DRY AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. AN CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS NEAR 23N63W COVERING THE AREA
BETWEEN 56W-70W AND DIPS S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW
IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N58W TO
19N61W GENERATING DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-26N BETWEEN 55W-63W. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN...
EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH...
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N41W
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS WSW TO OVER THE FAR SE CONUS AND THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER KEEPING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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