[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 84.5W AT 26/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 225 NM ESE OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 250 NM ESE OF
CHETUMAL MEXICO MOVING W AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE IS OVER T.D.ONE PROVIDING OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM
13N-20N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND S OF 13N INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND N COSTA RICA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH
A WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE REMAINS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH PARTIALLY MASKING
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 62W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 79W FROM OVER CUBA TO
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N11W 6N19W 8N29W 5N35W 5N45W 4N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN THE
COAST OF W AFRICA AND 17W AND 4N-7N BETWEEN 17W-24W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N
BETWEEN 30W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING WSW ACROSS S TEXAS TO NE MEXICO
TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 26N100W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER T.D. ONE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
S OF 26N GIVING THE SE GULF  DENSE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
S OF 25N E OF 90W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE NE GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH
INLAND OVER N ALABAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 25N-27N E OF 86W TO THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE GULF BUT LEAVING MOST OF THE GULF
UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE LOCATED IN THE
W CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W
ANCHORED NEAR T.D. ONE AND EXTENDING INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN
66W-71W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LEAVING
THE SE CARIBBEAN TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W ANCHORED NEAR
29N75W WITH DRY AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR 23N63W. THE UPPER
LOW IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N59W TO
17N61W GENERATING DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-25N BETWEEN 52W-62W. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N41W
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS WSW TO OVER THE FAR SE CONUS AND THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER KEEPING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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