[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HAS NOW BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WITH A 1004 MB LOW CENTER ANALYZED NEAR
16N83W. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD SURFACE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN AND ADJACENT
AREAS...INCLUDING CUBA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWED
GOOD INDICATIONS OF STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W FROM 4N TO 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS FOUND EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE WAVE IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. THEREFORE...THE CONVECTION IS FOUND
ESE OF THE MAIN FEATURE FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 13W AND 26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 17N MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT. THE
NORTHERN HAL OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MID TO
HIGH VALUES OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THEREFORE...THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 61W AND
68W...AFFECTING THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS WHERE THE TERRAIN
IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL EVENTS.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 80W HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICA COAST AT
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W...WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 4N30W 5N40W
4N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 11N
BETWEEN 13W AND 26W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG
28W. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ WEST OF 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE GULF IS UNDER GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH A FEW WEAK
ISOLATED SHOWERS GENERATED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OVER THE NE GULF. MORE IMPORTANTLY...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION CURRENTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS
ENTERING THE SE BASIN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN
CUBA. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE GULF IS IN
STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THE CONVECTION FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE UPCOMING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
AND IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR MORE
INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...VISIT OUR
WEBPAGE AT WWW.NCH.NOAA.GOV

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OVER MOST OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN W OF 72W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE IN THIS REGION AS
WELL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ALONG 83W. DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE BASIN NORTH OF 13N WEST OF
75W. WITHIN THE AREAS OF STRONGER CONVECTION...HIGH AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CUBA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT THE BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS
SCENARIO...VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.NCH.NOAA.GOV

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH THE AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 23N55W TO 17N60W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING AROUND 23N62W AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE
FLOW ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 51W AND
58W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N40W...SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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