[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251632
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1615 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W...
DRIFTING WESTWARD. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 17N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W/84W...AT LEAST REACHING THE EASTERN
COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WATERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER...
TO THE SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 85W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
BELIZE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 79W AND THE
NORTHEASTERN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THE
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY
ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS LIKELY
THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT
REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA OF WEATHER LATER TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
16N60W 12N62W INTO VENEZUELA NEAR 6N67W. THE ORIENTATION OF
THIS WAVE IS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACTING UPON IT.
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 22N56W 17N59W HAS BROKEN AWAY
FROM THE WAVE AND NOW WILL BE INDEPENDENT OF THE WAVE.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 1.22 INCHES
WAS RECORDED IN KINGSTON JAMAICA DURING THE 24-HOUR PERIOD THAT
ENDED AT 25/1200 UTC. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
14N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 16N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 80W. THIS WAVE
EVENTUALLY WILL CATCH UP TO THE 82W TROPICAL WAVE...POSSIBLY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 11N20W 10N24W 8N27W
4N40W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. DISORGANIZED
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 12N
BETWEEN 10W AND 30W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 38W
AND 52W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS CENTERED IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
MEXICO...COVERING THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND
BAJA CALIFORNIA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 92W. A SEPARATE AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS CENTERED IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM WESTERN CUBA
TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...NEAR A 24N64W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...REACHES 17N68W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MONA PASSAGE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 70W AND 80W
FINDS ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF SOME MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
15N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N64W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 17N68W. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W ARE
BEING ENHANCED AS THE 22N56W 17N59W SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES
AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N38W...
TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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