[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS IS OVER THE NW BASIN OF THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG 82W FROM 13N TO 25N. EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION AROUND A 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED AROUND 16N82W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN AND ADJACENT
AREAS...INCLUDING CUBA...CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 13N...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 78W-90W.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCTIVE AND THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG
22W FROM 5N TO 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS FOUND ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE WAVE IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC RELATIVE
VORTICITY IN THIS REGION. THEREFORE...SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ONLY FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN
16W-23W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W FROM 12N TO 22N MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.
INFRA-RED IMAGERY FROM PAST FEW DAYS INDICATES THE CONVECTION
FROM THIS WAVE HAS BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS SHEARING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE A FEW DAYS AGO.
FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS ALSO
INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED AWAY FROM AN AREA OF
DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 20N MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IMPACTING HISPANIOLA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10-20N BETWEEN 66W-78W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR
10N14W...WESTWARD ALONG 8N20W 5N30W 4N40W 6N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 14W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 27N87W...SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST OVER THE NE BASIN. THIS
FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN
FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. A SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH IS
OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 21N. THIS FEATURE IS
MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ENTERING THE SE THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS AND WESTERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH A FEW POSSIBLE WEAK
ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE GULF IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.
COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION FROM THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPCOMING TROPICAL WAVE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR MORE INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS
SCENARIO...VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.NCH.NOAA.GOV

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH VALUES OF
MOISTURE IN THIS REGION AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING
TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE ALONG 74W AND THE OTHER ALONG 83W N OF
13N. DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE BASIN NORTH OF 13N. WITHIN THE AREAS
OF STRONGER CONVECTION...HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS OF HISPANIOLA
...CUBA...AND JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO THAT THE BROAD CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W WILL TRACK
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REGARDLESS OF CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA NORTH OF 12N
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR MORE
INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...VISIT OUR
WEBPAGE AT WWW.NCH.NOAA.GOV

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 55W IS GENERATING MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. THE
CONVECTION FROM THIS WAVE HAS BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS IT MOVES
WEST AWAY FROM THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED AROUND
26N56W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
IS BEING PRODUCED BY TWO MAIN AREAS OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE AREAS OF DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS COME FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC...ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net