[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N79W TO NEAR 13N80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 72W-80W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND HIGH DEBRIS
CLOUDS MASKING THE EXACT LOCATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. HIGH
AMPLITUDE WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED BUT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N47W TO 17N52W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA FROM
12N-20N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 21N67W TO JUST N OF THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR
13N69W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-72W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 8N15W 5N31W 7N48W 9N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
11W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 6N22W TO 5N33W AND
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 34W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE SE GULF NEAR 24N84W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR
21N101W WHILE THE N GULF IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY ZONAL EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. AT OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF
EXTENDING FROM 25N85W TO APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 25N-27N. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 20N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC
EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF TO TEXAS WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SOME ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTS THE GULF
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE THE TWO
TROPICAL WAVES...ONE BEING IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. AN ELONGATED
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR SAINT LUCIA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE COAST
OF GUATEMALA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 18N W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS COVERS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 66W ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
THE SW CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 68W WITH
MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO
THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC S OF 23N BETWEEN 55W-80W ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
15N-21N BETWEEN 50W-76W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 24N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 76W-81W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH IN
THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N39W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ALONG
30N TO THE SE CONUS AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE FLORIDA/
GEORGIA BORDER KEEPING THE ATLC UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN
THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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